Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
